Trend continuation Short
Bear breakout pullback
Retest of former support. The breakdown holds and old buyers cannot reclaim support.
Read the sequence.
01 / OBSERVE → DECIDE
- ContextRetest of former support
- PressureThe breakdown holds and old buyers cannot reclaim support
- SetupRetest of former support. Require rejection or acceptance at the marked structure.
- DecisionBear signal after the retest fails
The decision map
02 / QUICK REFERENCE- Location
- Retest of former support.
- Evidence
- The breakdown holds and old buyers cannot reclaim support.
- Trigger
- Bear signal after the retest fails.
- Invalidation
- Sustained acceptance back above the breakdown level.
- First objective
- Breakout low; then range-height projection.
- Pass when
- Strong bull closes regain the old range.
03 / THE FULL ARGUMENT
Thesis & participant logic
Supplied study draft · adapted Brooks-style prose, not a quotation from Al Brooks
Bears broke below support with strong follow-through. Price rallied to retest the breakout point but could not regain the old range. Bulls who bought the old support are trapped, and bears who missed the breakout are selling the retest. I will sell after the pullback forms a bear trigger. My thesis is wrong if price establishes acceptance back above the breakout point. I will target the low and measured move.
04 / FROM IDEA TO A PLAN
Manage the thesis, not the need to be right.
Before entry
Write the structural invalidation and first realistic objective. Size to the loss you have already accepted, including costs and possible slippage. If the stop is unaffordable, reduce size or pass.
After entry
Reassess follow-through against the evidence above. Do not widen the stop or add because price “has gone too far.” A bounce to your average entry is not a market thesis.
At the objective
Breakout low; then range-height projection. Decide ahead of time whether to exit or retain a defined remainder. Continue only while structure and follow-through support the trade.
During review
Record the entry-time chart, planned risk, maximum adverse excursion, actual exit, and whether the thesis was invalidated. Judge the decision separately from the outcome.