Major reversals Long
Sell climax followed by failed continuation
Late bear climax followed by a weak new low. Urgent selling is followed by failed continuation.
Read the sequence.
01 / OBSERVE → DECIDE
- ContextLate bear climax followed by a weak new low
- PressureUrgent selling is followed by failed continuation
- SetupLate bear climax followed by a weak new low. Require rejection or acceptance at the marked structure.
- DecisionBull control after a failed bear retest
The decision map
02 / QUICK REFERENCE- Location
- Late bear climax followed by a weak new low.
- Evidence
- Urgent selling is followed by failed continuation.
- Trigger
- Bull control after a failed bear retest.
- Invalidation
- Break below the climax extreme.
- First objective
- EMA area or origin of the final selloff.
- Pass when
- Assuming every large bear bar ends the trend.
03 / THE FULL ARGUMENT
Thesis & participant logic
Supplied study draft · adapted Brooks-style prose, not a quotation from Al Brooks
Bears created unusually large bars and urgent selling late in an existing decline. Bears then attempted continuation but failed, and price reclaimed the climax area. I will buy after a credible bull reversal and failed bear retest. My thesis is wrong below the climax low. I will target the EMA or origin of the final selloff.
04 / FROM IDEA TO A PLAN
Manage the thesis, not the need to be right.
Before entry
Write the structural invalidation and first realistic objective. Size to the loss you have already accepted, including costs and possible slippage. If the stop is unaffordable, reduce size or pass.
After entry
Reassess follow-through against the evidence above. Do not widen the stop or add because price “has gone too far.” A bounce to your average entry is not a market thesis.
At the objective
EMA area or origin of the final selloff. Decide ahead of time whether to exit or retain a defined remainder. Continue only while structure and follow-through support the trade.
During review
Record the entry-time chart, planned risk, maximum adverse excursion, actual exit, and whether the thesis was invalidated. Judge the decision separately from the outcome.